"Prepping," or getting ready to live without societal support, is apparently a largely American activity, and a recent one. Companies that cater to people who want to be self-reliant for food, water, and power have grown their revenue by about 700 percent over the last decade, and prepper products are now offered in places like Costco, Kmart, and Bed Bath & Beyond.
Really enjoy your common sense approach to the prepping lifestyle and hitting on this list. One thing that we found a challenge when we started was financial preparedness; not necessarily a prepping budget, but getting rid of unnecessary, burdensome debt that robs you of the truly important things in life, and preparedness goals. Keep up the good work of sharing!

Mr. Edwards has sufficient recognition in the prepping world that just last month someone calling himself Hudson Valley Prepper left a message on Preppergroups.com warning that one day in the not-too-distant future he might head north. “This guy Aton Edwards,” the message read, “a dangerous man in his own right, is currently holding prepper training in New York City and has stated that the number one goal is to get out of the city. Do you think you could stop Aton and his followers once he has been on the road for a week and is starving?”

I found this practicality attractive. I liked how Preppers were given to debate (bear spray or baseball bats? Water purification or water filtration?) and how they were versed in esoteric areas of knowledge (fish antibiotics, New York City knife laws). I was especially enamored of the jargon: “GOOD” (Get Out of Dodge) or “TEOTWAWKI” (The End of the World as We Know It). And yet, I must confess, there were moments that gave me pause.
The original BCB Ultimate Survival Kit, USAF Aircrew Version, was developed and modified in collaboration with the United States Air Force. It is based on the Ultimate Survival Kit (UK Version), but is better supplied and geared toward use by the US military (NATO approved NSN 8465-99-270-7742). Now we have taken the USAF Aircrew Version of the Ultimate Survival Kit and improved it, still further, by upgrading some items and adding even more of the survival supplies that one might need in a survival situation.
Jim: do you have a book about surviving in the woods? I understand your recommendation to avoid gong it alone, but simply cannot stomach the idea of crapping in a bucket in a boarded up house, surrounded by humans in survival mode who are just waiting for the opportunity to kill me and my daughter and take everything we have.... The diseases that people have, ugh just all of it. We are woods people! Always will be. Far far away from others, far far away from help too... Sigh.
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Among those features: the waterproof tarpaulin bag is airtight and capable of acting as a floatation device, it has an integrated flashlight for hands-free illumination while wearing the pack, and the exoskeleton frame becomes snowshoes or splints. Inside are silk-screened first aid and emergency instructions, plus more than 30 tools and supplies like a radio, USB charger, food, water filter, sunscreen, hand warmers, and more.
1. Something else to consider is a smart phone. My phone has a 32gig memory chip. It can holds LOTS of info. Some paperback books will be good to have. But even off the grid a phone can still access certain apps that have been downloade. I have about 50 books on my phone. A compass. Maps. I can draw a quick map or list with my stylis too. I can easily share documents and file by just tapping my phone on another smart phone. Take pictures and zoom in on them. Great to check progress walking and general references.… Read more »
Yes, another non-necessity, but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I like having options and redundancies. We have the smaller version of the Solo Stove – the Titan, and it’s great, though we’d prefer a larger size than we’ve got. Solo Stoves are overbuilt, definitely a one-time purchase rocket stove, looks pretty stinkin’ good for what it is, and while, yes, you can totally have a regular fire-on-the-ground, this is one of those things that helps you out in the you-won’t-need-too-much-wood department. And if you’re at all into greyman survival – well you won’t be leaving a mess behind if you use one of these to contain your fire.
Onto a folding table came a breathtaking array of disaster swag: compasses and iodine pills, hand-cranked radios and solar-powered flashlights, magnesium fire-starters and a fully charged Kindle with digital road maps of the tristate region. Many of the items on display went far beyond the “10 Basic Pillars of Bug-Out Gear” that Jason Charles, the network’s leader, had passed out in advance through the Internet. A good number were tweaked to fit their owners’ needs and interests. A locksmith in the group had a lock-picking set. A vegetarian had a stash of homemade dehydrated lentils. One man had a condom designed to serve as an emergency canteen; another had a rat trap — to catch and eat the rats.

When you go back to the last depressing days when we were in a survival mode, the last one the Y2K of course, before the 1970s, what had happened was you only saw this one element of survivalist, you know, the caricature, the guy with the AK-47 heading to the hills with enough ammunition and pork and beans to ride out the storm. This is a very different one from that: you're seeing average people taking smart moves and moving in intelligent directions to prepare for the worst. (...) So survivalism in every way possible. Growing your own, self-sustaining, doing as much as you can to make it as best as you can on your own and it can happen in urban area, sub-urban area or the ex-urbans. And it also means becoming more and more tightly committed to your neighbors, your neighborhood, working together and understanding that we're all in this together and that when we help each other out that's going to be the best way forward.
Good afternoon all, I hope some of you are enjoying this Rivalry College Football Saturday. Anyway, I am about to conduct some bulk ammo accuracy testing of Federal American Eagle .223 55 grain, XM-193, and XM-855 (I do not like putting steel case through my rifles not designed for it). Testing will be done through a Ruger AR556 (16.1" barrel, 1:8 twist) with a Leupold 1.5-4x scope. I will run tests of 50 rounds of each ammo, on 3 different occasions to vary temperature and atmospheric conditions at 100 yards starting with a different ammo first on each different occasion so a different ammo type has the cold barrel advantage. Anyway, to anyone who is interested, I will be posting the results after each trial.

For more than 18 months, Britain has been trying to negotiate a deal with the European Union, without which the country could face gridlock at ports, trucks stuck on highways with their loads of food spoiling, empty grocery and pharmacy shelves, energy scarcity and factories shutting down. Britain imports around one-third of its food from the European Union, and businesses rely on complex supply chains that could break down if checks are imposed on the thousands of trucks that cross the English Channel each day.
I’m sure I really don’t have to explain why a crossbow would make for a great prepper gear item to add to your stockpile. Hunting and defense applications when things get really bad – oh and regardless, practicing with one of these would be so much fun in and of itself. Regardless of prepping, this is one cool item to have and train yourself to use. As a side note, since we live in the UK, this one of the easiest long-range hunting tools we can obtain.
This bug-out motorbike may be just what a city dweller needs to run for the hills, with its ability to weave through traffic around miles of cars with occupants also trying to escape. Its oversized universal rack accepts bolt-ons to mount survival gear or harnesses of the rider’s choice, and with the addition of two optional fuel tanks, this baby can go for 250-300 miles before you’ll have to battle other looters of abandoned vehicles to get more gas.
If worse came to worse and I had to leave the house, this would probably be one of the things I would throw in the car just because it filters treated and untreated water, so if I was camping outdoors and unsure of the water, I could easily filter large amounts of water. Of course, some would prefer to use a Lifestraw or Sawyer filter, but they are small devices that are only really suitable for hikers or survivalists who are expecting to travel on foot for long distances.
Whether you embrace firearms or shun them, you still need a way to defend yourself, your family and your property.  Consider pepper sprays, martial arts, and other defensive mechanisms in addition to traditional firearms.  It is foolhardy to believe that having some means of defense is not needed because “there is no one out to get you”.  Don’t be naive in this regard!
The eruption of Mt Fuji will indicate that an east/west fault line has fractured, allowing Northern Honshu to slide into a 6500 metre ocean trench. Earthquakes of the past 90 days in the eastern side of Japan has weakened it’s foundation, a porous sub-structure; a land of a volcanic substance. The resulting tsunamis’ will wipe-out millions of humans in the Pacific region as well as severely destabilizing the Earth’s crust, resulting in the dislodging of the Western & Eastern Antarctic ice sheets. This massive loss of weight from the continent of Antarctica will result in an asymmetric rotation of the Earth and so cause the isostasy (Balance of the Earth’s crust.) to become unbalanced. Crust displacement at Magnitude 12+ will then occur until the Earth’s crust reaches equilibrium, while at the same time hundreds of volcanoes will erupt, lands will disappear and have an extreme destabilizing effect on the climate patterns.
Depending on where you live, whether it be near a reserve or spare land, a crossbow is one of those perfect hunting tools and prepper gear additions that are quiet on the shot, easy to use, have high precision, reusable ammunition, and double as a home defense item should it be needed. There is no doubt that such an item deserves a spot in any household’s prepper gear.
Today, Luther says she keeps a pantry with three different levels of “defense.” The first consists of boxes of cereal, frozen foods, and other items you might fall back on if you couldn’t make it to the grocery store for a week or two. The second, her “short-term” food storage, includes canned goods and other items with a longer shelf life — “Stuff you’d use if perhaps you lost a stream of income and times were tight for a few months,” Luther explains. The third is her long-term food storage: Mylar bags full of dry goods like beans, rice, and wheatberries, as well as some freeze-dried fruits, vegetables, and meat. Layer three, she says, is for “a situation in which all hell has broken loose.”
Each type you listed (save a couple) will have its uses in a community (group if you will), generally having a small trusted group with each having several skills in the various fields (prepper, homesteader, and survivalist) I believe would be an effective team, though as each group works together would it not be best to ensure that each has overlapping skills in case of injury, death, or other reasoning they can not fulfill their duties?
Further interest in the survivalist movement peaked in the early 1980s, with Howard Ruff's book How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years and the publication in 1980 of Life After Doomsday by Bruce D. Clayton. Clayton's book, coinciding with a renewed arms race between the United States and Soviet Union, marked a shift in emphasis in preparations made by survivalists away from economic collapse, famine, and energy shortages—which were concerns in the 1970s—to nuclear war. In the early 1980s, science fiction writer Jerry Pournelle was an editor and columnist for Survive, a survivalist magazine, and was influential in the survivalist movement.[16] Ragnar Benson's 1982 book Live Off The Land In The City And Country suggested rural survival retreats as both a preparedness measure and conscious lifestyle change.
Glad i started prepping. I’ve slacked off for awhile, but i’m back. Last year my cities water was considered undrinkable for about 3 days. Couldnt drink it, use it in anyway, not even a shower. Was said to cause vomiting, rashes, etc. You couldn’t go to a store in this city and find water any where. It was crazy. I had about 6 10 gallon jugs of water, stored away. Another thing was the whole gun ban hype after sandy hook. For a long long time you literally couldn’t find ammo. Or if you did you were paying a few… Read more »
I was going through a bunch of things I’m either looking to buy or that others were asking about and thought you migh be interested in knowing which prepper and survival gear is selling better than the rest. It’s a great indication that what you’re buying is a good value, and you can always read the reviews to see if you should buy it. This is currently the list of the top 10 best-selling prepper and survival gear items, along with an explanation for each.
3. The water will slowly filter through the charcoal and drip out of the cap. Put a bandanna or another cloth over the hole to filter out any bits of charcoal. (If you’re experiencing intestinal distress—and you very well might be, since your body goes into different kinds of shock in these situations—eat a little bit of the charcoal. It’ll help bind you back up.)

When somebody speaks of a ‘credit collapse’ , I don’t think anyone can possibly speculate or define what that possibly might be, or how much, or where, or really anything specific enough to be meaningful. The problem with this type of hysteria and hand-waving, is that without specific definitions, or possible implications, it leaves any listener up in the air, grasping at ghosts, and no real solution. So all it does is provoke anxiety, as you can’t possibly prepare for any potential threat or ‘enemy’ that you don’t know anything more about than someone’s vague notion. Further, Its impossible to prepare for every single scenario, that anyone can imagine, let alone even be possible for worst case, as no one has a clue what worst case is, or will be. If any reasonable business leader such as a CEO attempted to prepare for such vague notions as mentioned here, the CEO would be ruled insane, and the board would summarily fire him. Instead of doing this scene here, listening to what will almost assuredly turn out to be in hindsight, false prophets, and making your day a nightmare, why not live each day as if its your last, live in the moment, enjoy it and your time with your family, or work colleagues, and make the best of THAT MOMENT ? I’d be shocked if at least 75% of the listeners here, weren’t either seeing a shrink or taking anti-depressants or anti-anxiety medications of some sort. Its not a knock, but seriously people, try taking a ‘chill pill’ (placebo and call it that) like a Vitamin C, or have yourself a glass of wine, at the end of the day.

Remember when I wrote about wheat in Why You Should Store Wheat for Survival?  For heaven’s sake, do not purchase wheat if you do not know how to use it.  Of course, it would not hurt to learn about wheat.  Freshly ground, it makes a heavenly loaf of bread the only problem being that it is so good you may eat too much and gain 50 pounds which would be another problem entirely.
I just read your article, its great your helping folks out like this sharing your knowledge and experience. Ive been prepping now for about 5 years slowly growing our preps for our family but I noticed a couple of items I really think you should add to your list if you dont mind my suggestions. Not that I know anything you dont but if we all share ideas we can help each other. which is my first point. If you have a couple of friends you can trust, work with them and each work on specific lists to grow your… Read more »
Before fire season, move combustibles away from your house. Fences and dry vegetation give fires a place to grow, says Jonathan Cox at Cal Fire, California’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Hosing down your house won’t help much, either, he says: “The way a lot of these homes burn is through something called ember cast, when embers from the fire fly over and drop little fires everywhere. With a huge ember cast, hosing down your house doesn’t do much.”
Yup, rocket stove DIYs are easy to find, but to each his own and if I can afford to spend $150 on a good knife, I can also afford to spend the same on a rocket stove that’s good looking, lightweight, extremely portable and a one-time buy. It’s the kind of thing I wouldn’t mind pulling out in front of the sheeple to have a BBQ or go camping with, and that makes me happy one way or another. Just like the rain barrel, I could DIY one myself, but it’s unlikely to look even a fraction as good (especially with my incredibly poor DIY skills), and so I’d rather just buy one and be done with it.

Then, as the show-and-tell ended, he gave the prize for Best Bag to a precocious young Prepper whose kit included a fishing line, a seat belt cutter, ready-start fuel cubes, several types of multi-tools and a smoke hood. The winner had come with his mother and had dutifully prepared a bag for her. I wanted to talk with him, but when I approached, he asked if I was “press” and suspiciously refused to give his name.
Other newsletters and books followed in the wake of Ruff's first publication. In 1975, Kurt Saxon began publishing a monthly tabloid-size newsletter called The Survivor, which combined Saxon's editorials with reprints of 19th century and early 20th century writings on various pioneer skills and old technologies. Kurt Saxon used the term survivalist to describe the movement, and he claims to have coined the term.[8]
According to Hobel, shelter is your first priority. Lay down cardboard and other materials to insulate yourself from the ground. (Even in summer, the ground can have temperatures that lead to hypothermic conditions.) Use tarps, blankets, pillows—whatever you can find—to build the shelter on that layer. It should be as low to the ground as possible, and you shouldn’t be able to sit up when you’re inside, Hobel says. Other than the airflow you need to breathe, block all openings to keep cold air from coming in. It’s a matter of conserving heat. A lot of people don’t realize that their bodies are heat sources, Hobel says. You’re almost 100 degrees. Trap that heat around you instead of letting it rise in a tall shelter, and you won’t need a fire to stay warm.
With the recent alarming events we're seeing a lot of interest in becoming prepared. If you're new here and worried, please first take a deep breath. Things are most likely not immediately dire. The chances of your worst nightmares happening soon are still very, very small. Take a few more deep breaths. Becoming prepared is much more like running a marathon than a sprint.
When he gets up to show me about his cabin, Pense stands with the height and permanence of the dignified trees that encircle the property. He doesn’t say “um,” or “well”—the slow, deliberate syllables that emanate from his jowls feel like historical record, perhaps with a sprinkle of Americana, but not quite jingoism. Listening to him talk about his life is like having R. Lee Ermey recite your high school American studies textbook, but gentler.
Suppression of firearms is a good idea for night fighting, but do your research about suppressors and suppression before committing to a 3-400 dollar solution as well as the $200 tax stamp per suppressor. For $500 I can build another AR platform rifle or shorty pistol. And don’t forget that suppressors aren’t magic; the piece still makes enough noise for everybody within a half klick on a totally silent night to hear it.

This portable water filter and purification system lets thirsty doomsday survivors drink water found anywhere. Fill up the bottle at a stream, press for 15 seconds, and proceed with hydration. The water will be clear of viruses, bacteria, protozoa, particulates, chemicals, and heavy metals. One filter is good for 300 uses. After that, if you haven’t stockpiled them, you’re on your own.
Don’t let prepping overwhelm you because there are many companies wanting you to buy their product. And I agree with pat Henry, things are not as bad as what many think. I have been listening to doomsday talkers since 2011 about the imminent collapse around the corner and there will always be people saying this. So don’t rush to spend thousands of dollars. Do a little at a time and stay within your means. This is a good article because it gives you general categories such as a means to purify water, then food, then medicine, then security and also… Read more »
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Good afternoon Nate, I just received my bugout role which I finally tracked down apparently it was sent to the wrong post office so it was a little mixup here in the US I had recently sent you an email asking kind of where it was etc... a bit confusing I hope you understand I was being over anxious and excited to receive this! It was all a timing issue for me. And you are right in your video in saying that once you receive it you all very much appreciate it and boy do I appreciate it I am so excited and can’t wait to use it ,and get it all packed up and ready to go thank you for your time and thanks to everybody that works with you to complete your great products and thank you very very much for the surprise tinder. Sincerely, Kevin

Below are two Prepper Supplies Checklist resources.   The first is a free PDF of the original 17-page preppers supplies checklist. Over the years, I’ve collected feedback on how to improve the list and compiled the updated preppers supplies checklist into a book. The book is a 35-page “Preparedness Plan Workbook”.  There are 9 categories of preparedness that are covered:  Water, Food, Warmth, Light, First Aid, Hygiene, Communication, Financial, and Protection/Hunting. The Food & Water Checklists include formulas to determine how much of each you will need depending on the size of your family/group.


Last week our electricity went out for several hrs. We discovered that our oil lamps that had been sitting on the shelf for yrs and yrs, didn’t have oil in them – oops – Not much good with out oil in them. It was cold and snowing, so really didn’t want to walk to the garage (not attached and about 100 ft) to get some. We did have candles and flashlights. We decided we liked using the headlight type of flash light the best – so are picking up a few more. I can make my cell phone into a WiFi spot, other wise there is no connectivity if your system is down. Yes there isn’t much to do if you don’t have TV or your computer – yes we are spoiled. We are lucky that we have a propane heat stove as well as a propane cook stove. So we weren’t cold, and we could have a cup of coffee. Was a good reminder to have things ready.
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The #1 thing you.ve missed is to not store everything in the same place even if you are ‘bugging in’. I lost my home & all it’s contents to a fire on Christmas Day. All my dehydrated (by me plus bought stuff) jars & cans are gone, along with stuff I’d been saving…dog food, bleach, baking soda etc. Luckily I’d stored a little bit in the {untouched} detached garage. I mean a wind storm or flood could cause the same devastation. Just wanted to add that because it’s not something you think about. I know I didn’t til it happened.
Great read, but #14 in my opinion is not good. Why is it always the prepper in the family that has to compromise? Prepping is not a number one priority, it is the only priority. There is nothing but prepping. It is not a way of life, it is life itself. What good will prepping do anyone if they are away on vacation when the lights go out or a nuclear blast occurs? What good is anything connected with survival if it is not with you 24/7/365.25? One window of opportunity is all an intentional or happenstance enemy needs to cull a prepper. Life is life and death is death and their is no inbetween. A little bit of further advice on bugging out, if you will allow. All this bogus info about bug out bags, bug out vehicles, and bug out locations is just a ton of suicidal bs as far as survival goes. Any bug out bag a person can reasonably carry will not provide enough food to last more than 60 days. We have tried this and dehydrated food is the only feasible plan one can have for lengthy time driven bugging out. Canned food is good, but extremely heavy. Dehydrated food and lifestraws will put you light years ahead of the pack{We dehydrate our own vegetables, fruits, and meats]. Vehicles will only get you killed so how do you take enough supplies to last a year or more. Well, the lowly wheel barrow works tremendously well. With or without a few homemade alterations, such as side bodies, the ‘Texas dump truck'[wheelbarrow] will carry an enormous amount of supplies and is easily hidden while we scout out an area or forage for food or the best drinking water. The wheelbarrow, in effect, is our bug out location. Whereever it is, we will not be far away.One person alone can carry a lot, a whole lot, and if you have two or more people the possibilites are almost unlimited. Make sure the inflatable tires are replaced with solid rubber if possible. We had no trouble in finding solid rubber replacement tires but if you do then get a hand pump and several tube repair kits. Garden utility wagons also work well. Even for carrying infants and small pets the wheelbarrow/garden wagon works great. Admittedly I do not live in the mountains and don’t really know how functional a wheelbarrow would be in that terrain, but it works great in the flatlands and hills. For the small amount of money invested and the positive results achieved a wheelbarrow is the way to go when shft. thanks and God bless.
For now, he broadcasts Monday through Friday, 9 to 11 a.m., and Finelli invites “instructors”—doctors, dentists, survivalists, a man who carries no identification, an Australian woman who talks about seceding from the government—anyone who has something relevant to preparedness. To Finelli, there’s little that isn’t relevant. He doesn’t sell merchandise or accept donations, as fellow GCN hosts such as Jones do. 
Later that day, the 69-year-old Janet Randall also confesses to sabotaging the group. She was at the first meetup, and between clanks and frothy whirs from the espresso machine at the Starbucks on Glenstone Avenue, I learn how Brutus got rid of Caesar. From Randall’s, Dr. Shealy’s, Allen’s, and Louis’ accounts, here’s what happened: One day last year, during Finelli’s pneumonia hiatus, Dr. Shealy brought in a spiritual healer, as he had for years without complaint. 
The preparation you make for a hurricane, earthquake or other short-term disaster will not keep you alive in the event of widespread social collapse caused by pandemic, failure of the grid or other long-term crises. Government pamphlets and other prepping books tell you how to hold out through an emergency until services are restored. This book teaches you how to survive when nothing returns to normal for weeks, months or even years, including: 

The player can reach a "proper ending" in Survival mode by defeating the ender dragon, but this does not actually terminate play; it provides a trophy item, a huge amount of experience, and leaves the End dimension open for exploration. There is also an optional boss, the wither, which becomes accessible in the mid- to late game. The player can also take up any purposes of their own design; one common goal is to fulfill all of the predefined achievements (Advancements in Java Edition). Oceans also bring exploration, as they have corals, monuments and adapted creatures like guardians and drowned.
However, a few unintentional similarities to the Quiverfull movement doesn't mean that preppers can't still care about safe sex. Hunting, canning, and digging your own latrines does nothing to make the threat of an STD less real. After all, gonorrhea and genital warts are going to be a whole lot harder to treat without reliable access to medical care. And there must be at least a few survivalists out there rational enough not to want to endure the horrors of premodern pregnancy and birth unless absolutely necessary.
Below are two Prepper Supplies Checklist resources.   The first is a free PDF of the original 17-page preppers supplies checklist. Over the years, I’ve collected feedback on how to improve the list and compiled the updated preppers supplies checklist into a book. The book is a 35-page “Preparedness Plan Workbook”.  There are 9 categories of preparedness that are covered:  Water, Food, Warmth, Light, First Aid, Hygiene, Communication, Financial, and Protection/Hunting. The Food & Water Checklists include formulas to determine how much of each you will need depending on the size of your family/group.
If an alternate location is not practical, consider storing items at various locations around your home.  Not everything needs to be on shelves in the basement.  Spread things out so that if the basement gets flooded, you still have dry items in the upstairs bedroom.  Use your imagination and don’t forget to do the very best you can to package everything so it is resistant to moisture and pests.

About a month after I left meetup 2.0 at Pizza Hut, former attendee Garland Fitzhugh called to tell me it’s become more of an ‘eat-up’ than a prepper meetup—fair, considering there’s been no local calamity to keep the survivalist group on its toes. Allen emails meeting suggestions to a prepper listserv, asking them to focus on prepping situations they can actually influence. He may as well type in Wingdings. A former Navy technician, Allen spent most of the meeting on his phone; his ears only perk up when Andrew: says something about naval intelligence that piques his interest. “I try not to do that too much,” he tells me later. 
There's 1 small thing and 1 large thing that, for me, saved it from being a 1 star. First the small thing, the mention of herbs and spices - I think this may be an item that many people forget about, but can make a poor situation go from "surviving" to "doing good". Secondly, the section on entertainment and education - I think this is an oft-overlooked aspect that will actually be very important, and again will affect whether one just survives or thrives.

You might think it’s silly to grab one of these when you can DIY one yourself, but I do often feel like preps that are ugly are kind of frustrating to have to live with in the long-term. Besides, if you’re trying to hide the fact that you’re a prepper, nothing works better than hiding your preps in a pretty package like this. And you buy them once, how often are you going to replace a rain barrel? Pretty much never!
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For the Soon to Be Ready for Anything Prepper

The Ultimate List of the 8 Most Important Surviving Skills that will Make the Difference between Life and Death during a Crisis